Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.455678 0.525684 0.601393 0.689173 0.787954 0.895483 1.021193
2025-06-01 0.362396 0.456066 0.565002 0.700343 0.863214 1.052093 1.286848
2025-06-08 0.288526 0.394734 0.527067 0.702407 0.926749 1.202120 1.563376
2025-06-15 0.243754 0.361286 0.517620 0.737552 1.035178 1.419661 1.948829
2025-06-22 0.189609 0.305601 0.470676 0.717491 1.070748 1.550639 2.242577
2025-06-29 0.150709 0.263940 0.436113 0.709084 1.121056 1.707585 2.590297
2025-07-06 0.118788 0.226286 0.400926 0.694232 1.160204 1.853970 2.941089
2025-07-13 0.100698 0.207418 0.391662 0.717637 1.259719 2.099168 3.461552
2025-07-20 0.082560 0.184356 0.371345 0.719954 1.326520 2.302687 3.941767
2025-07-27 0.069921 0.168696 0.361115 0.737793 1.421084 2.559919 4.531660
2025-08-03 0.059569 0.155114 0.352203 0.756547 1.519584 2.833818 5.175058
2025-08-10 0.046935 0.133119 0.322514 0.731440 1.536634 2.972846 5.609543
2025-08-17 0.035642 0.111188 0.289153 0.695223 1.531864 3.080218 6.013565
2025-08-24 0.028796 0.098177 0.272404 0.690318 1.586915 3.301142 6.639336
2025-08-31 0.022973 0.085867 0.254442 0.679623 1.629165 3.503594 7.252913
2025-09-07 0.019816 0.080293 0.251793 0.703288 1.746303 3.860982 8.185932
2025-09-14 0.015237 0.068255 0.229346 0.675950 1.750168 3.997947 8.716590
2025-09-21 0.012048 0.059491 0.213467 0.661617 1.780741 4.191476 9.374177
2025-09-28 0.009397 0.051368 0.197113 0.642686 1.797841 4.358738 9.994644
2025-10-05 0.008083 0.048034 0.194572 0.660510 1.904740 4.725929 11.048881
2025-10-12 0.006622 0.043228 0.185892 0.659423 1.965124 4.998250 11.929984
2025-10-19 0.005654 0.040228 0.182537 0.673305 2.065322 5.368215 13.045592
2025-10-26 0.004851 0.037593 0.179753 0.688465 2.170971 5.760219 14.238294